National FDI Concepts: Implications for investment negotiations
Jun 4th 2010, Smitha Francis

Free trade agreements and bilateral investment treaties make privileges for and treatment of foreign direct investors legally binding. Thus, apart from the concerns of being able to capture the ''real'' financial and economic contribution of foreign direct investment inflows, FDI definitions are also about protecting the ''rights'' of the so-defined investors in the host country. Keeping this in mind, the article analyses India's current FDI policy and warns that if we define FDI within our national regulatory framework too broadly to allow instruments and flexibility that were earlier resisted, we would have already lost most of the leverage in investment negotiations at the regional and multilateral levels.

The Spectre of Public Debt
Apr 21st 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The sovereign debt crisis of Greece has led to appeals for a reduction in the size of public debt in countries worldwide. Given that increasing taxes and reducing expenditures may not be considered viable options, there would soon be strident calls for disinvestment and privatisation aimed at generating the resources needed for this.
FDI and the Balance of Payments in the 2000s
Mar 10th 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The most quoted indicator of the success of economic reform is the noticeable rise in the inflow of foreign direct investment during the last decade and a half. However, the available Indian evidence on the performance of foreign direct investment companies suggests that their balance of payments consequences are adverse.
The WTO as Barrier to Financial Regulation
Feb 8th 2010, Jayati Ghosh
Many of the financial regulatory proposals now being considered by developed countries might not be feasible given the legally binding commitments these countries have made under GATS with respect to financial services liberalisation. Such WTO rules may therefore get ignored or GATS may require to be renegotiated, for the necessary financial sector reforms to take place.
A Tax to Rein in Finance
Nov 25th 2009, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Even though there have been many dissenters to the proposal of imposing a tax on financial transactions, the UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s declaration in support of such a tax has given a new lease of life to the idea that just will not go away.
Sending the Money Home
Sep 15th 2009, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Remittances have been and remain a major source of strength for the Indian economy, especially for its balance of payments. Given the accumulated stock of migrants abroad, this is unlikely to change very soon, even if some are forced to return due to the effects of the crisis on employment contracts.
Service Exports in Developing Asia
Sep 10th 2009, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Trade in services has become an important source of foreign exchange in many Asian developing countries. But it is widely expected that they would also be adversely affected by the global recession because a significant proportion of service trade is destined towards the banking and financial services industry of the US market alone. However, the tourism industry so far does not show any definitive evidence of declining trends, although there are some changes in the geographical pattern of tourist arrivals.
Global Trade in a Time of Crisis
Jul 28th 2009, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Among the many differences of opinion that the global crisis generated, one was whether in a more integrated world there could be an element of desynchronization in the incidence and intensity of crises. In particular, views diverged on whether China and India would weather the crisis and serve as shock absorbers for the world economy. This article assesses the implications of recently released data on world trade to address these questions.
Fears of a Backlash
May 20th 2009, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The US President clearly aims at getting some political mileage by posing an otherwise straightforward tax reform proposal in terms of jobs at home and jobs overseas. On the other hand, despite industry concerns to the contrary, the competitive edge for the India’s IT industry which comes from the lower wage rates and the attraction of the growing demand for IT hardware and packaged software in the Indian domestic market are both so large that the loss of the tax advantage should not deter US firms from captive outsourcing or setting up subsidiaries here.
And Now, the Indian Balance of Payments Crisis
Apr 11th 2009, Jayati Ghosh
With India's declining merchandise exports and still growing imports resulting in a trade deficit, it is now confirmed that the Indian economy is already badly hit by the global economic crisis. The more worrisome part is that our policymakers refuse to accept this reality and still want to intensify the policies of financial liberalisation that have brought us to this pass.
Balance of Payments Portents
Apr 3rd 2009, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The sharp depreciation of the rupee that has taken its value to more than Rs.50-to-a-dollar refocuses attention on post-crisis developments on India’s external front. This article examines the implications of certain trends revealed by recently released evidence. It is argued that there are possible indications of speculative trends pushing down the value of the rupee. If this is true, it does not bode well for the balance of payments and the rupee.
Foreign Reserves and the Rupee
Dec 5th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The sharp depreciation of the rupee and the accompanying drain of foreign exchange reserves are major sources of concern regarding the state of the Indian economy. In this article, examine some of the factors that underlie these tendencies and the prospect of their reversal.
India and the Global Financial Crisis
Oct 15th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Although India is not likely to face a financial meltdown of the kind that was nearly experienced in the United States due to larger role of the nationalised banks and other controls on domestic finance here, there has been some adverse impact on the economy in the form of double-digit inflation, rupee depreciation, widening capital account deficit and decreasing foreign exchange reserves. It is therefore necessary that the government gives a second thought to its liberalisation policy.
WTO: One More Failure
Aug 7th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The collapse of the talks of the Doha Round on 29th July, 2008 is no big deal since along the long route of the Doha round, periodic failure of negotiations is inevitable. This is not a disaster for advocates of trade liberalisation either because, in most countries, actual levels of protection are much lower than the bound levels WTO talks about. The point to note is that the so-called progress in trade liberalisation notwithstanding, the fundamental asymmetry of the world trading system remains.
Balance of Payments: Do We Need to Worry?
Aug 1st 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Despite the apparent public complacency regarding the balance of payments, there are reasons to be concerned about recent trends. In this artilce the authors specifically examine tendencies in the current account and assess their significance for the immediate future.
China's African Hinterland
Mar 10th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

China's growing presence in Africa has led to arguments that the country is seeking to meet its growing requirements of primary products, including oil, by building a relationship reminiscent of a colonial past with many African countries. In this article, the authors examine what the evidence reveals about this relationship.

Oil Prices and the US Dollar
Mar 7th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

The depreciation of the US dollar has been closely bound up with the movement of oil prices, as world oil trade is typically denominated in dollars. Yet this relationship may now be under threat as the dollar continues to depreciate and the US economy tips into recession. This article examines how oil prices have changed with different numeraires, and considers the implications for the future of the oil-dollar nexus.

Can China Become the New Growth Pole for Asia?
Mar 3rd 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

With the US economy clearly tipping into recession, international attention is now focussed on the extent to which China and India can create an alternative growth pole for the world economy through their increasing demand. In this article, the authors assess the potential for China to play such a role by analysing its trade pattern with developing Asia.

Wheat Inflation and India
Dec 12th 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
India is one among the many countries that have been adversely affected by the sharp rise in global wheat prices. While this is partly due to errors on the part of the government, it also reflects the consequences of the rise in food prices globally. This rise, argue, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh, cannot be explained by pure demand and supply factors. Speculative influences have an important role to play.
Assessing the World Export Boom
Nov 6th 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
There is much talk of a major boom in world exports, especially in this decade, yet the basic contours of this boom are rarely discussed. In this edition of MacroScan, C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh consider the main trends in the pattern of export growth and analyse the implications for the developing world in particular.
What's 'Made in India'?
Jun 14th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Analysis of the changes in the overall composition of India's exports during the years of export recovery does not point to a major contribution by manufacturing to those changes. Therefore, no significant improvement in India's competitive position in manufactured exports is visible. In fact, the global strategies adopted by leading Indian manufacturing firms suggest that the possibility that India would enter higher-end segments with a higher proportion of final value added being generated within its own geographical boundaries, is weakening.
Private Equity: A New Role for Finance?
May 22nd 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar
Given that a substantial proportion of companies in Asian developing countries are either unlisted or have a small proportion of free-floating shares, the surge in investments by private equity firms suggests that foreign acquisitions could increase in the region sharply. With foreign investors controlling a rising share of total assets, the ability of domestic forces and the domestic State to influence the pattern and pace of growth of domestic economic activity would be substantially eroded.
The Vice-Grip of Finance
Dec 27th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The stock market in Thailand collapsed after the government introduced limited market-based capital controls aimed at stalling the rapid appreciation of the Thai baht. The subsequent retreat by the government on the capital control measures raises serious questions about policy sovereignty in developing countries that have opened their financial markets to portfolio capital flows.

Primitive Accumulation by Another Name
Oct 31st 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The mere creation of the much hailed Special Economic Zones would not necessarily change the trajectory of export growth from India by attracting exporting units, though it may increase production for the domestic market by large firms and transnationals with adverse implications for existing domestic producers. This will pave the way for a crude form of primitive accumulation of capital where private capital would make huge profits at the expense of the small property owner and the State, with limited benefits in the form of foreign exchange revenues.

Convertibility: Road Map for Whom?
Sep 14th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The Reserve Bank of India has released the report of the special Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility, which was constituted to revisit the issue of making the rupee convertible for capital account transactions. The recommendation of the FCAC committee to push ahead with capital account liberalisation, even in phases and with some caution, seems as unwarranted today as it was in 1997.

Course Change in Global Trade Negotiations
Sep 7th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The uncompromising position taken by the US during the recent Geneva WTO talks is mainly because of their increasing reliance on bilateral FTAs. The suspension of the talks also has a larger message for India. Rather than being an instrument to win developing country support for an unequal deal, it is time India starts taking the side of the developing countries and truly represents their interests.

The Breakdown of WTO Negotiations: Some Implications for Developing Countries
Sep 7th 2006, Anamitra Roychowdhury

This article describes the proceeding of events in the recently concluded WTO Mini-Ministerial. Focusing on the issues taken up for discussion, it tries to investigate the reasons which lead to the suspension of talks and concludes with some lessons for developing countries.

Knowledge and the Asian Challenge
Sep 5th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The scorching pace of expansion in the exports of hi-tech manufactured products from China and software and IT-enabled services from India, has supported the view that 'knowledge capital' plays a crucial role in the growing global presence of these countries. This paper discusses the empirical basis for that assessment.

What Does the Upsurge in Global Capital Flows Indicate?
Jun 12th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

International capital markets have been very active in the past year, especially in terms of movements in and out of developing countries. This article examines the recent patterns in, and the implications of, the recent upsurge in global capital flows.

The Stock Market Meltdown: A Preliminary Note
May 30th 2006, Prasenjit Bose

While the rise in the US interest rate and the global fall in metal prices have contributed to the recent stock market meltdown in India as well as globally, the market crash in India stands out both in its magnitude as well as its specific underlying causes. It has been precipitated primarily through heavy selling by foreign institutional investors.

Do Missed WTO Deadlines Matter?
May 2nd 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The yet again missed deadline at the WTO negotiations signifies little loss for the developing world, since with current trends in global trade and global growth being patently inequalising, their potential gain from integration seem to be limited. Meanwhile the current stage of negotiations is marked by an attempt to widen the elite club to include developing countries like Brazil and India, and use them strategically to push for further integration.

Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration and Export Competition in Agriculture: What has it really achieved?
Apr 24th 2006, Partha Pratim Pal & Deepika Wadhwa

It is generally perceived that the Paragraph 6 of the Hong Kong Ministerial declaration has taken some major strides towards disciplining all forms of export supports. This paper takes a look at the Paragraph 6 of the Hong Kong declaration and analyzes its implications for international agricultural trade.

Protecting Foreign Investors
Apr 18th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

In recent years, bilateral investment treaties (BITs) have proliferated especially for developing countries, yet they remain largely secret and outside the realm of public scrutiny and audit. In this edition of MacroScan, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh discuss the current and potential implications of these BITs.

Exploding Imports
Mar 22nd 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The recent period has witnessed an explosion of imports in India. This paper examines the pattern of imports over the past decade and a half and discusses the implications of import penetration for domestic output and employment.

Exploiting a ''Heady Mix''
Feb 20th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The government's use of the GDP growth figures to whitewash the nature of the stock market speculative boom is to not only justify the ''inability'' to provide adequately for much-needed social and capital expenditures in the name of ''fiscal prudence''; it can also use the ruse that liberalisation has delivered India's ''heady'' economic performance to press ahead with liberalisation measures that allies and supporters of the current government oppose.

The Export Growth Story
Feb 7th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Recent increases in exports have been hailed as indicating the emergence of India as an internationally competitive economy. In this article, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh examine recent patterns of external trade, in particular exports, and consider the implications.

 
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