National
FDI Concepts: Implications for investment
negotiations |
| Jun
4th 2010, Smitha Francis |
| Free
trade agreements and bilateral investment
treaties make privileges for and treatment
of foreign direct investors legally binding.
Thus, apart from the concerns of being able
to capture the ''real'' financial and economic
contribution of foreign direct investment
inflows, FDI definitions are also about
protecting the ''rights'' of the so-defined
investors in the host country. Keeping this
in mind, the article analyses India's current
FDI policy and warns that if we define FDI
within our national regulatory framework
too broadly to allow instruments and flexibility
that were earlier resisted, we would have
already lost most of the leverage in investment
negotiations at the regional and multilateral
levels. |
|
|
The Spectre of Public Debt |
| Apr
21st 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
|
The
sovereign debt crisis of Greece has led
to appeals for a reduction in the size of
public debt in countries worldwide. Given
that increasing taxes and reducing expenditures
may not be considered viable options, there
would soon be strident calls for disinvestment
and privatisation aimed at generating the
resources needed for this. |
|
| FDI
and the Balance of Payments in the 2000s |
| Mar
10th 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
most quoted indicator of the success of
economic reform is the noticeable rise in
the inflow of foreign direct investment
during the last decade and a half. However,
the available Indian evidence on the performance
of foreign direct investment companies suggests
that their balance of payments consequences
are adverse. |
|
|
The WTO as Barrier to Financial Regulation |
| Feb
8th 2010, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
|
Many
of the financial regulatory proposals now
being considered by developed countries
might not be feasible given the legally
binding commitments these countries have
made under GATS with respect to financial
services liberalisation. Such WTO rules
may therefore get ignored or GATS may require
to be renegotiated, for the necessary financial
sector reforms to take place. |
|
| A
Tax to Rein in Finance |
| Nov
25th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
|
Even
though there have been many dissenters to
the proposal of imposing a tax on financial
transactions, the UK Prime Minister Gordon
Brown’s declaration in support of such a
tax has given a new lease of life to the
idea that just will not go away. |
|
| Sending
the Money Home |
| Sep
15th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
|
Remittances
have been and remain a major source of strength
for the Indian economy, especially for its
balance of payments. Given the accumulated
stock of migrants abroad, this is unlikely
to change very soon, even if some are forced
to return due to the effects of the crisis
on employment contracts. |
|
| Service
Exports in Developing Asia |
| Sep
10th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
Trade
in services has become an important source
of foreign exchange in many Asian developing
countries. But it is widely expected that
they would also be adversely affected by
the global recession because a significant
proportion of service trade is destined
towards the banking and financial services
industry of the US market alone. However,
the tourism industry so far does not show
any definitive evidence of declining trends,
although there are some changes in the geographical
pattern of tourist arrivals. |
|
| Global
Trade in a Time of Crisis |
| Jul
28th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Among
the many differences of opinion that the
global crisis generated, one was whether
in a more integrated world there could be
an element of desynchronization in the incidence
and intensity of crises. In particular,
views diverged on whether China and India
would weather the crisis and serve as shock
absorbers for the world economy. This article
assesses the implications of recently released
data on world trade to address these questions. |
|
| Fears
of a Backlash |
| May
20th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
|
The
US President clearly aims at getting some
political mileage by posing an otherwise
straightforward tax reform proposal in terms
of jobs at home and jobs overseas. On the
other hand, despite industry concerns to
the contrary, the competitive edge for the
India’s IT industry which comes from the
lower wage rates and the attraction of the
growing demand for IT hardware and packaged
software in the Indian domestic market are
both so large that the loss of the tax advantage
should not deter US firms from captive outsourcing
or setting up subsidiaries here. |
|
| And
Now, the Indian Balance of Payments Crisis |
| Apr
11th 2009, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
|
With
India's declining merchandise exports and
still growing imports resulting in a trade
deficit, it is now confirmed that the Indian
economy is already badly hit by the global
economic crisis. The more worrisome part
is that our policymakers refuse to accept
this reality and still want to intensify
the policies of financial liberalisation
that have brought us to this pass. |
|
| Balance
of Payments Portents |
| Apr
3rd 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
sharp depreciation of the rupee that has
taken its value to more than Rs.50-to-a-dollar
refocuses attention on post-crisis developments
on India’s external front. This article
examines the implications of certain trends
revealed by recently released evidence.
It is argued that there are possible indications
of speculative trends pushing down the value
of the rupee. If this is true, it does not
bode well for the balance of payments and
the rupee. |
|
| Foreign
Reserves and the Rupee
|
| Dec
5th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
sharp depreciation of the rupee and the
accompanying drain of foreign exchange reserves
are major sources of concern regarding the
state of the Indian economy. In this article,
examine some of the factors that underlie
these tendencies and the prospect of their
reversal. |
|
| India
and the Global Financial Crisis
|
| Oct
15th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
Although
India is not likely to face a financial
meltdown of the kind that was nearly experienced
in the United States due to larger role
of the nationalised banks and other controls
on domestic finance here, there has been
some adverse impact on the economy in the
form of double-digit inflation, rupee depreciation,
widening capital account deficit and decreasing
foreign exchange reserves. It is therefore
necessary that the government gives a second
thought to its liberalisation policy. |
|
| WTO:
One More Failure
|
| Aug
7th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
collapse of the talks of the Doha Round
on 29th July, 2008 is no big deal since
along the long route of the Doha round,
periodic failure of negotiations is inevitable.
This is not a disaster for advocates of
trade liberalisation either because, in
most countries, actual levels of protection
are much lower than the bound levels WTO
talks about. The point to note is that the
so-called progress in trade liberalisation
notwithstanding, the fundamental asymmetry
of the world trading system remains. |
|
| Balance
of Payments: Do We Need to Worry? |
| Aug
1st
2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
Despite the apparent public complacency
regarding the balance of payments, there
are reasons to be concerned about recent
trends. In this artilce the authors specifically
examine tendencies in the current account
and assess their significance for the immediate
future. |
|
| China's
African Hinterland |
| Mar
10th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati
Ghosh |
|
|
China's
growing presence in Africa has led to arguments
that the country is seeking to meet its
growing requirements of primary products,
including oil, by building a relationship
reminiscent of a colonial past with many
African countries. In this article, the
authors examine what the evidence reveals
about this relationship. |
|
| Oil
Prices and the US Dollar |
| Mar
7th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati
Ghosh |
|
|
The
depreciation of the US dollar has been closely
bound up with the movement of oil prices,
as world oil trade is typically denominated
in dollars. Yet this relationship may now
be under threat as the dollar continues
to depreciate and the US economy tips into
recession. This article examines how oil
prices have changed with different numeraires,
and considers the implications for the future
of the oil-dollar nexus. |
|
| Can
China Become the New Growth Pole for Asia? |
| Mar
3rd 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati
Ghosh |
|
|
With
the US economy clearly tipping into recession,
international attention is now focussed
on the extent to which China and India can
create an alternative growth pole for the
world economy through their increasing demand.
In this article, the authors assess the
potential for China to play such a role
by analysing its trade pattern with developing
Asia. |
|
| Wheat
Inflation and India |
| Dec
12th 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati
Ghosh |
|
| India
is one among the many countries that have
been adversely affected by the sharp rise
in global wheat prices. While this is partly
due to errors on the part of the government,
it also reflects the consequences of the rise
in food prices globally. This rise, argue,
C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh, cannot
be explained by pure demand and supply factors.
Speculative influences have an important role
to play. |
|
| Assessing
the World Export Boom |
| Nov
6th 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati
Ghosh |
|
| There
is much talk of a major boom in world exports,
especially in this decade, yet the basic contours
of this boom are rarely discussed. In this
edition of MacroScan, C. P. Chandrasekhar
and Jayati Ghosh consider the main trends
in the pattern of export growth and analyse
the implications for the developing world
in particular. |
|
| What's
'Made in India'? |
| Jun
14th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| Analysis
of the changes in the overall composition
of India's exports during the years of export
recovery does not point to a major contribution
by manufacturing to those changes. Therefore,
no significant improvement in India's competitive
position in manufactured exports is visible.
In fact, the global strategies adopted by
leading Indian manufacturing firms suggest
that the possibility that India would enter
higher-end segments with a higher proportion
of final value added being generated within
its own geographical boundaries, is weakening. |
|
| Private
Equity: A New Role for Finance? |
| May
22nd 2007,
C.
P. Chandrasekhar |
|
| Given that a
substantial proportion of companies in Asian
developing countries are either unlisted or
have a small proportion of free-floating shares,
the surge in investments by private equity
firms suggests that foreign acquisitions could
increase in the region sharply. With foreign
investors controlling a rising share of total
assets, the ability of domestic forces and
the domestic State to influence the pattern
and pace of growth of domestic economic activity
would be substantially eroded. |
|
| The
Vice-Grip of Finance |
| Dec
27th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
stock market in Thailand collapsed after
the government introduced limited market-based
capital controls aimed at stalling the rapid
appreciation of the Thai baht. The subsequent
retreat by the government on the capital
control measures raises serious questions
about policy sovereignty in developing countries
that have opened their financial markets
to portfolio capital flows. |
|
| Primitive
Accumulation by Another Name |
| Oct
31st 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
mere creation of the much hailed Special
Economic Zones would not necessarily change
the trajectory of export growth from India
by attracting exporting units, though it
may increase production for the domestic
market by large firms and transnationals
with adverse implications for existing domestic
producers. This will pave the way for a
crude form of primitive accumulation of
capital where private capital would make
huge profits at the expense of the small
property owner and the State, with limited
benefits in the form of foreign exchange
revenues. |
|
| Convertibility:
Road Map for Whom? |
| Sep
14th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
Reserve Bank of India has released the report
of the special Committee on Fuller Capital
Account Convertibility, which was constituted
to revisit the issue of making the rupee
convertible for capital account transactions.
The recommendation of the FCAC committee
to push ahead with capital account liberalisation,
even in phases and with some caution, seems
as unwarranted today as it was in 1997. |
|
| Course
Change in Global Trade Negotiations |
| Sep
7th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
uncompromising position taken by the US
during the recent Geneva WTO talks is mainly
because of their increasing reliance on
bilateral FTAs. The suspension of the talks
also has a larger message for India. Rather
than being an instrument to win developing
country support for an unequal deal, it
is time India starts taking the side of
the developing countries and truly represents
their interests. |
|
| The
Breakdown of WTO Negotiations: Some Implications
for Developing Countries |
| Sep
7th 2006, Anamitra Roychowdhury |
|
This
article describes the proceeding of events
in the recently concluded WTO Mini-Ministerial.
Focusing on the issues taken up for discussion,
it tries to investigate the reasons which
lead to the suspension of talks and concludes
with some lessons for developing countries. |
|
| Knowledge
and the Asian Challenge |
| Sep
5th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
The
scorching pace of expansion in the exports
of hi-tech manufactured products from China
and software and IT-enabled services from
India, has supported the view that 'knowledge
capital' plays a crucial role in the growing
global presence of these countries. This
paper discusses the empirical basis for
that assessment. |
|
| What
Does the Upsurge in Global Capital Flows Indicate? |
| Jun
12th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
International
capital markets have been very active in
the past year, especially in terms of movements
in and out of developing countries. This
article examines the recent patterns in,
and the implications of, the recent upsurge
in global capital flows. |
|
| The
Stock Market Meltdown: A Preliminary Note |
| May
30th 2006, Prasenjit Bose |
|
While
the rise in the US interest rate and the
global fall in metal prices have contributed
to the recent stock market meltdown in India
as well as globally, the market crash in
India stands out both in its magnitude as
well as its specific underlying causes.
It has been precipitated primarily through
heavy selling by foreign institutional investors.
|
|
| Do
Missed WTO Deadlines Matter? |
| May
2nd 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
yet again missed deadline at the WTO negotiations
signifies little loss for the developing
world, since with current trends in global
trade and global growth being patently inequalising,
their potential gain from integration seem
to be limited. Meanwhile the current stage
of negotiations is marked by an attempt
to widen the elite club to include developing
countries like Brazil and India, and use
them strategically to push for further integration.
|
|
| Hong
Kong Ministerial Declaration and Export Competition
in Agriculture: What has it really achieved? |
| Apr
24th 2006, Partha Pratim Pal & Deepika
Wadhwa |
|
It
is generally perceived that the Paragraph
6 of the Hong Kong Ministerial declaration
has taken some major strides towards disciplining
all forms of export supports. This paper
takes a look at the Paragraph 6 of the Hong
Kong declaration and analyzes its implications
for international agricultural trade.
|
|
| Protecting
Foreign Investors |
| Apr
18th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
recent years, bilateral investment treaties
(BITs) have proliferated especially for
developing countries, yet they remain largely
secret and outside the realm of public scrutiny
and audit. In this edition of MacroScan,
C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh discuss
the current and potential implications of
these BITs. |
|
| Exploding
Imports |
| Mar
22nd 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
recent period has witnessed an explosion
of imports in India. This paper examines
the pattern of imports over the past decade
and a half and discusses the implications
of import penetration for domestic output
and employment. |
|
| Exploiting
a ''Heady Mix'' |
| Feb
20th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
government's use of the GDP growth figures
to whitewash the nature of the stock market
speculative boom is to not only justify
the ''inability'' to provide adequately
for much-needed social and capital expenditures
in the name of ''fiscal prudence''; it can
also use the ruse that liberalisation has
delivered India's ''heady'' economic performance
to press ahead with liberalisation measures
that allies and supporters of the current
government oppose. |
|
| The
Export Growth Story |
| Feb
7th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Recent
increases in exports have been hailed as
indicating the emergence of India as an
internationally competitive economy. In
this article,
C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh examine
recent patterns of external trade, in particular
exports, and consider the implications.
|